Up to 849 million hectares of natural land – nearly the size of Brazil – may be degraded by 2050 should current trends of unsustainable land use continue, warns a report by UNEP launched at Davos, Switzerland on 24 January.

The need to feed a growing number of people globally has led to more land being converted to cropland at the expense of the world’s savannah, grassland and forests.

This has resulted in widespread environmental degradation and loss of biodiversity, affecting an estimated 23% of global soil.

Agriculture currently consumes more than 30% of the world’s land area, and cropland covers around 10% of global land.

Between 1961 and 2007, cropland expanded by 11%, a trend that continues to grow.

The report, entitled “Assessing Global Land Use: Balancing Consumption with Sustainable Supply”, was produced by the International Resource Panel, a consortium of 27 internationally renowned resource scientists, 33 national governments and other groups, hosted by UNEP.

UN Under-Secretary-General and UNEP Executive Director, Achim Steiner, said: “Recommendations from the report are meant to inform policy and contribute to on-going discussions on targets and indicators for sustainable resources management as the world charts a new course for sustainable development post-2015.”

The report outlines the need and options to balance consumption with sustainable production.

It focuses on land-based products, such as food, fuels and fibre, and describes methods to enable countries to determine whether their consumption levels exceed sustainable supply capacities.

At the same time it distinguishes between gross and net expansion of cropland.

While net expansion is a result of rising demand for food and non-food biomass – which cannot be compensated by higher yields – gross expansion comprises the shift of cropland to other areas due to losses caused by severe degradation.

Under a business-as-usual scenario, the net expansion of cropland will range from 120 to 500 million hectares by 2050.

Shifts to more protein-rich diets in developing countries and a growing demand for biofuels and biomaterials, especially in developed countries, are increasing the demand for land.

To download a copy of the report, please visit: www.unep.org/resourcepanel